The Energy Transition That Couldn’t
Ideas, and the words we use to frame them, matter.
Ideas, and the words we use to frame them, matter. For example, as the Cold War wound down, “the end of history” suggested that the disintegration of Soviet communism would leave liberal democracy and market economies unchallengeable.
The Misleading Concept of the Energy Transition
Today, it is “energy transition” that has gained a hold over policymakers. While the term suggests the necessity of shifting from fossil fuels to renewables – a seemingly compelling idea that aligns with climate goals and technological innovation – it inaccurately describes what is happening (and will happen) and has led some governments to adopt costly, counterproductive policies. And it has pitted goals that should be complementary – addressing climate change and promoting energy security – against each other.
A Brief History of Energy Transitions
To be clear, energy transitions – a move away from one form of energy to another – have occurred throughout history, coinciding with economic changes that created demand for the new energy source.
After the Industrial Revolution began, the steam engine, the internal combustion engine, and the rise of manufacturing economies impelled societies to shift from wood to coal and later to oil and gas.
Support for the Transition
Support for a transition away from fossil fuels reflects concerns about the actual and predicted costs of climate change and the evidence linking the warming of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans with the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (especially methane) emitted by burning coal, oil, and natural gas.
The Goal of Net Zero Emissions
The goal of the transition is to achieve “net zero” emissions (ideally by 2050) by phasing out fossil fuels and replacing them with renewables, including solar, wind, and nuclear power.
The Reality of the Energy Landscape
This is not occurring. Nor is “de-fossilisation.” Fossil fuels – oil, gas, and coal – still supply over 80% of global energy. Since 2013, global oil and gas consumption has risen by 14%, owing to a 25% increase in developing economies.
Coal consumption remains indispensable in powering China, India, and other developing countries, and reached record highs in 2023. Renewables, while growing rapidly, are not displacing hydrocarbons, at least for now.
The Factors Undermining the Energy Transition
The reason is straightforward: energy demand is increasing at an annual rate of 2-3%, and technological advances like hydraulic fracturing (fracking) have made hydrocarbons cheaper and more abundant.
The US, already the world’s biggest oil producer, will produce even more during Donald Trump’s coming presidency, and growing populations and economies in the Global South will sustain robust demand.
The Need for a New Paradigm
The “energy transition” has reached that point. Its absence from the final draft of this year’s global climate conference in Baku is telling. A new paradigm is needed: energy coexistence.
Conclusion
Energy coexistence requires targeted investments and policy reforms. Modernising energy grids to accommodate diverse energy sources and increase efficiency is critical, as is scaling carbon-capture and storage technologies to mitigate emissions. Encouraging the development of renewables through fostering public-private partnerships and easing site restrictions would help. Switching from coal, which causes the highest emissions, to lower-emission gas and renewables should be a high priority as well.
FAQs
Q: What is the energy transition?
A: The energy transition is a move away from one form of energy to another, such as shifting from fossil fuels to renewables.
Q: What is the goal of the energy transition?
A: The goal of the energy transition is to achieve “net zero” emissions by phasing out fossil fuels and replacing them with renewables, including solar, wind, and nuclear power.
Q: Why is the energy transition not occurring?
A: The energy transition is not occurring because energy demand is increasing, and technological advances have made fossil fuels cheaper and more abundant, leading to a continued reliance on hydrocarbons.
Q: What is the alternative to the energy transition?
A: The alternative is energy coexistence, which accepts that energy consumption will continue to rise and involves a mix of fossil fuels and renewables to achieve increased security, resilience, and affordability.