Anticipating Trump’s Foreign Policy

Prediction is always difficult, but doubly so in the case of the US president-elect. Donald Trump not only speaks loosely and changes his positions often; he also considers unpredictability to be a useful bargaining tool. Still, one can try to get a sense of what his foreign policy will look like from his campaign statements, his high-level appointments, and his first term.

Personnel is Policy

In Washington, it is often said that “personnel is policy”. But while we already know whom Trump wants for key positions, the problem is that their stated views sometimes conflict with each other.

China and Trade

Consider the question of China. Trump’s choices for secretary of state and national security adviser – Senator Marco Rubio and Representative Michael Waltz, respectively – are well-known “hawks” who see China as a dominant threat that demands a strong response. We also know from his campaign that Trump is eager to introduce new tariffs on imports from allies, with even higher tariffs on goods from China.

Uncertainty Abounds

With Trump already announcing plans to slap tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, we should certainly expect some new levies to be imposed. But the tariffs’ rates, duration, and exemptions remain uncertain and are subject to both domestic political pressures and Trump’s personal whims.

Middle East and Europe

Would he offer his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, weaker US support for Taiwan in exchange for a trade deal that he could hold up as a victory? Some of America’s Asian allies worry about precisely this scenario.

In the Middle East, Trump’s campaign statements were unconditionally supportive of Israel, and he still takes pride in having negotiated the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and four Arab countries.

NATO and Ukraine

Turning to Europe and NATO, Trump said during the campaign that he would end the war in Ukraine “in one day”. We know that will not happen; but there is deep uncertainty about how he will try to negotiate an armistice.

Conclusion

Even if predictions based on campaign statements and personnel leave us uncertain, we can at least locate Trump in the historical traditions of US foreign policy.

Historical Traditions

Recall his first inaugural address, when he proclaimed that “from this moment on, it’s going to be America first … we do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an example”. This view accords with the “city-on-the-hill” approach to US foreign policy, which has a long pedigree. It is not isolationism, but it eschews activism.

Conclusion

The one prediction that seems safe is that Trump’s approach to the world will be more in keeping with the first of these traditions than the second.

Frequently Asked Questions

What can we expect from Trump’s foreign policy? It is uncertain, but we can expect a focus on “America first” and a possible retraction from multilateralism and alliances.

How will Trump address China? He may introduce new tariffs on imports from allies, with even higher tariffs on goods from China, but the rates, duration, and exemptions remain uncertain.

What about the Middle East? Trump’s campaign statements were supportive of Israel, and he may seek to extend his prior success in the region, but it is unclear how he will go about it.

What about NATO and Ukraine? Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine is unclear, but he may try to negotiate an armistice, possibly by reducing assistance to Ukraine and weakening its bargaining position.

How does Trump’s approach to foreign policy fit into historical traditions? His views are more in line with the “city-on-the-hill” approach to US foreign policy, which emphasizes American exceptionalism without activism.

What does the future hold? Only time will tell, but one prediction is certain: Trump’s approach to the world will be more in keeping with the first of these traditions than the second.

Joseph S Nye Jr, professor emeritus at Harvard University, is a former US assistant secretary of defense.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.