South Korea’s Fertility Rate Sees First Increase in Nine Years, a Sign of Demographic Crisis Turning a Corner
Rise in Marriages and Births
Preliminary data from Statistics Korea has revealed that South Korea’s fertility rate has risen in 2024 for the first time in nine years, supported by an increase in marriages. The country’s fertility rate, the average number of babies a woman is expected to have during her reproductive life, stood at 0.75 in 2024.
Historical Context
In 2023, the birthrate fell for the eighth consecutive year to 0.72, the lowest in the world, from 1.24 in 2015, raising concerns over the economic shock to society from such a rapid pace. Since 2018, South Korea has been the only member of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) with a rate below 1.
Government Initiatives
South Korea has rolled out various measures to encourage young people to get married and have children, after now impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol declared a "national demographic crisis" and a plan to create a new ministry devoted to tackling low birth rates.
Social Value Shift
"There was a change in social value, with more positive views about marriage and childbirth," Park Hyun-jung, an official at Statistics Korea, said at a briefing, also citing the impact of a rise in the number of people in their early 30s and pandemic delays. "It is difficult to measure how much each factor contributed to the rise in new births, but they themselves had an impact on each other too," Park said.
Marriage and Birth Trends
Marriages, a leading indicator of new births, jumped 14.9% in 2024, the biggest spike since the data started being released in 1970. Marriages turned up for the first time in 11 years in 2023 with a 1.0% increase powered by a post-pandemic boost. In the Asian country, there is a high correlation between marriages and births, with a time lag of one or two years, as marriage is often seen as a prerequisite to having children.
Regional Variations
Across the country, the birthrate last year was the lowest in the capital, Seoul, at 0.58. The latest data showed there were 120,000 more people who died last year than those who were newly born, marking the fifth consecutive year of the population naturally shrinking. The administrative city of Sejong was the only major centre where population grew.
Population Projections
South Korea’s population, which hit a peak of 51.83 million in 2020, is expected to shrink to 36.22 million by 2072, according to the latest projection by the statistics agency.
Conclusion
The latest data suggests that South Korea’s demographic crisis may have turned a corner, with a rise in marriages and births. While there is still much work to be done, this development is a positive sign for the country’s future.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the current fertility rate in South Korea?
The current fertility rate in South Korea is 0.75. - What is the lowest fertility rate in the world?
The lowest fertility rate in the world is 0.72, which was recorded in 2023 in South Korea. - What are the government initiatives to encourage young people to get married and have children?
The government has rolled out various measures, including the creation of a new ministry devoted to tackling low birth rates, to encourage young people to get married and have children. - What is the population projection for South Korea by 2072?
According to the latest projection, South Korea’s population is expected to shrink to 36.22 million by 2072.