Trump Administration Considers Stopping and Inspecting Iranian Oil Tankers at Sea
Background
President Donald Trump’s administration is considering a plan to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea under an international accord aimed at countering the spread of weapons of mass destruction, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Trump has vowed to restore a "maximum pressure" campaign to isolate Iran from the global economy and drive its oil exports to zero, in order to stop the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Recent Developments
Trump hit Iran with two waves of fresh sanctions in the first weeks of his second-term, targeting companies and the so-called shadow fleet of ageing oil tankers that sail without Western insurance and transport crude from sanctioned countries. Those moves have largely been in line with the limited measures implemented during former President Joe Biden’s administration, during which Iran succeeded in ramping up oil exports through complex smuggling networks.
New Plan
Trump officials are now looking at ways for allied countries to stop and inspect ships sailing through critical chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait in Asia and other sea lanes, according to six sources who asked not to be named due to the sensitive subject. That would delay delivery of crude to refiners. It could also expose parties involved in facilitating the trade to reputational damage and sanctions, the sources said.
Proliferation Security Initiative
The administration is examining whether inspections at sea could be conducted under the auspices of the Proliferation Security Initiative launched in 2003, which aims to prevent the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction. This mechanism could enable foreign governments to target Iran’s oil shipments at Washington’s request, one of the sources said, effectively delaying deliveries and hitting supply chains Tehran relies upon for revenue.
Potential Blowback
Previous attempts to seize Iranian oil cargoes have triggered retaliation by Iran. The U.S. tried to interdict at least two cargoes of Iranian oil in 2023, under Biden. This prompted Iran to seize foreign ships – including one chartered by Chevron Corp, which sent crude prices higher.
Current Oil Price Environment
The current low oil price environment gives Trump more options to block Iranian oil flows, from sanctions on tanker companies to seizing ships, according to Ben Cahill, an energy analyst at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems at the University of Texas. "I think if prices stay below $75 a barrel, the White House has more latitude to look at sanctions that would affect, you know, supply from Iran and other countries. It would be much harder to do this in a $92 per barrel environment," Cahill said.
Conclusion
The Trump administration’s plan to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea is a bold move aimed at countering the spread of weapons of mass destruction and isolating Iran from the global economy. While there are potential risks and challenges associated with this plan, the administration believes it is necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
FAQs
- What is the Proliferation Security Initiative?
The Proliferation Security Initiative is an international accord aimed at preventing the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction. - What is the Trump administration’s plan to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea?
The administration is considering a plan to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea under the Proliferation Security Initiative to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction. - What are the potential risks and challenges associated with this plan?
The plan may trigger retaliation from Iran and expose parties involved in facilitating the trade to reputational damage and sanctions. - How does the current oil price environment affect the administration’s plan?
The current low oil price environment gives the administration more options to block Iranian oil flows, from sanctions on tanker companies to seizing ships.