The Lessons and Legacy of October 7

A Year of Conflict and Consequences

One year ago, Hamas killed over 1,200 people – overwhelmingly civilians – in Israel and took more than 250 hostages. Since then, Israel has reduced much of Gaza to rubble; more than 40,000 of its inhabitants have been killed, including 10,000-20,000 Hamas militants. Over 700 Israeli soldiers have lost their lives fighting Hamas and other Iranian-backed proxies.

Assumptions Can Be Deadly

For starters, assumptions can be dangerous. The attack surprised Israel for the second time in its history (the first being the launch of the 1973 October War). Although there were warnings about what Hamas was planning, senior military and political officials did not take them seriously.

Blind Spot: Enemy of My Enemy is Not My Friend

The Oct 7 attack also demonstrated that the enemy of your enemy is not necessarily your friend. For a decade, the Israeli government under the direction of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu provided substantial economic support to Hamas with the explicit hope that doing so would better position Hamas to compete with the Palestinian Authority (PA).

Fighting a War Without a Plan for Peace

Israel succeeded all too well in contributing to the weakening of the PA. Where it failed was in thinking it could buy off Hamas. Wars are as much political as military undertakings. It is possible to win a war on the battlefield and still lose it. Israel has done precisely that in Gaza, by choosing to fight a conventional war against an unconventional foe without a plan for what comes next.

Lessons for Mediators

Persuasion alone cannot be relied upon to change the behavior of others, be they friends or enemies. Diplomacy must be backed by incentives and sanctions, and sometimes carrots and sticks ought to be abandoned.

A Probable Future: A One-State Solution

The legacy – or more accurately legacies – of Oct 7 provide little ground for optimism. A two-state solution is more distant than ever. At the same time, Israel’s response to Oct 7 has strengthened anti-Israel views among Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and Israel proper, and strengthened the appeal of Hamas, which, like its backers in Iran, has no interest in peaceful coexistence with Israel.

Conclusion

Israel has lost in more ways than one, including lives, economic output, reputation, and standing in the US and the world. A younger generation sees Israel more as Goliath than David, more oppressor than oppressed. Anti-Semitism has spiked. The future is likely to resemble a “one-state non-solution”: Israeli control of the territory between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, an expanding settler population, and frequent clashes between Israeli security forces and Hamas in Gaza and with Hamas-like militias in the West Bank.

FAQs

Q: What were the consequences of the October 7 attack?

A: The attack resulted in the deaths of over 1,200 people – overwhelmingly civilians – in Israel and the displacement of over 250,000 others. Israel has reduced much of Gaza to rubble, and over 40,000 of its inhabitants have been killed, including 10,000-20,000 Hamas militants.

Q: What were the goals of the Israeli government in providing economic support to Hamas?

A: The Israeli government provided economic support to Hamas in the hopes that it would weaken the Palestinian Authority and create divisions among Palestinians, making a two-state solution more difficult to achieve.

Q: What are the long-term implications of the October 7 attack?

A: The attack has strengthened anti-Israel views among Palestinians and the appeal of Hamas, making a two-state solution more distant than ever. Israel may be left with a one-state solution, where it controls the territory between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, and there is an expanding settler population and frequent clashes between Israeli security forces and Hamas-like militias.

Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, is a senior counselor at Centerview Partners. The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.