The Fall of the House of Assad
A New Era for the Middle East
The swift collapse, after 54 years, of Syria’s al-Assad dynasty has just transformed the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. The lightning offensive by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militia took all of Syria’s neighbours – and everyone else – by surprise.
The Rise and Fall of the House of Assad
The news that President Bashar al-Assad had fled to Russia confirms the one binding truth about wars: unintended consequences can extend far beyond the theatre of battle. The Oct 7, 2023, attack that Hamas carried out against Israeli civilian communities bordering Gaza triggered earthquakes across the Middle East. Israel’s ruthless offensive to destroy Hamas in Gaza, and in Lebanon against Hezbollah, practically obliterated Iran’s “axis of resistance,” while the US and the UK pummeled the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on international shipping.
Syria’s Civil War
Syria’s civil war began in 2011 when the Assad regime crushed peaceful “Arab Spring” protests. But the fighting largely subsided after 2015, when Russia’s intervention, together with assistance from Iran and Hezbollah, turned the war in Assad’s favor.
The Rebel Victory
Today, with Iran’s proxies destroyed and Russia’s war-fighting capabilities drained by its Ukraine quagmire, the rebels saw their chance. With Turkish assistance, and apparently Qatar’s as well, the rebels easily overran the regime’s surprisingly thin defenses, and Assad’s army capitulated without a battle. After Assad’s Iranian and Russian patrons hastily evacuated their forces and left him to his fate, a regime built on torture and mass slaughter no longer inspired fear.
The End of an Era
The end of Iran’s alliance with Syria, its main stronghold in the Arab world, will reshape the regional balance of power. As Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former Iranian vice-president, put it two days before Assad fled, the Syrian government’s fall “would be one of the most significant events in the history of the Middle East. … Resistance in the region would be left without support. Israel would become the dominant force.”
HTS and the Future of Syria
The name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham stands for the liberation of the Levant, which in the early Caliphate’s political lexicon comprises Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Palestine. But Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the HTS leader, has tried to project an image of a new kind of Islamist. He seems to have drawn the necessary lessons from the failures of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (Isis) and now sees himself as a pragmatist who aspires only to bring about the “liberation of Syria from its oppressive regime.”
Challenges Ahead
Al-Jolani leads a hard-line Islamist organization. Those who expect that Turkey may temper HTS’s extremism assume Jolani would be an obedient soldier of Turkey. In any case, al-Jolani faces powerful political constraints. He must reckon with the myriad rival militias that united just to topple Assad, and also with the Kurdish forces who rushed to take control of more parts of eastern Syria, while under attack from Turkish forces in the north.
The Role of Turkey and Israel
To Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the ambitions of Syria’s Kurds threaten to spur nationalist subversion within Turkey’s own Kurdish communities. In 2019, Erdogan sent his army to establish a 30km-wide “security zone” in northern Syria and push Kurdish fighters away from the Turkish border, an area where the Kurds had seized the opportunity of the civil war to consolidate an autonomous enclave.
Conclusion
The fall of the House of Assad marks a new era for the Middle East. The region is now in a state of dramatic flux, calling for everyone, winners and losers alike, to recalibrate their policies. The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.
FAQs
* What is the significance of the fall of the House of Assad?
The fall of the House of Assad marks a significant shift in the regional balance of power and has far-reaching implications for the Middle East.
* Who is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)?
HTS is an Islamist militia that led the rebellion against the Assad regime and is now in control of parts of Syria.
* What are the challenges facing HTS?
HTS faces challenges from rival militias, Kurdish forces, and Turkish forces, as well as the task of governing Syria and upholding its territorial sovereignty.
* What is the role of Turkey in the conflict?
Turkey has played a significant role in the conflict, supporting both the Syrian rebels and the Kurdish forces, and has established a “security zone” in northern Syria to push Kurdish fighters away from the Turkish border.