A New Chance for the Middle East
The word “opportunity” rarely appears in the same sentence as the Middle East, and for good reason, but there is a case for suggesting we are approaching an exception. An opportunity – if not for lasting peace, then at least for an end to the ongoing conflicts and the prevention of new ones – is in fact knocking. The question is whether political leaders will open the door.
Israel’s Military Advantage
Israel has decimated the military capability of both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. But continuing military action on its part is running up against the law of diminishing returns, as fewer high-value targets are left.
The Case for a Ceasefire
The case for a ceasefire on both fronts is strong. The recent agreement between Israel and Hezbollah requires Hezbollah to move its heavy weaponry north of the Litani River, away from the border with Israel. Lebanese troops will patrol southern Lebanon, and the Israel Defense Forces will withdraw from the area and agree not to maintain a presence. This accord, if it holds, permits some 60,000 Israelis to return to their homes after more than a year of displacement.
Challenges in Gaza
Gaza poses a more difficult challenge. It is not clear that Hamas would agree to a ceasefire, although it is much weakened and might have difficulty resisting one if Israel agrees to terms that are widely deemed reasonable. But will Israel agree? It should, because a ceasefire would allow the return of the more than 100 remaining hostages in Gaza, half of whom Israeli intelligence services believe are still alive.
The Role of Donald Trump
The big question is whether Israel would agree to a political process that holds out the possibility (however distant, conditional, and vague in terms of territorial reach) of creating a Palestinian state. In the near term, such a process would pave the way for the entry into Gaza of a regional stabilization force and the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Conclusion
The opportunity is there for the taking. If political leaders will seize it, the region could finally begin to move towards a more peaceful and stable future. As Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, notes, “The opportunity is there for the taking.”
FAQs
* What is the current situation in the Middle East?
The region is still plagued by ongoing conflicts and the threat of new ones.
* What is the case for a ceasefire in the region?
The case for a ceasefire is strong, with a recent agreement between Israel and Hezbollah requiring Hezbollah to move its heavy weaponry north of the Litani River, away from the border with Israel.
* What are the challenges in Gaza?
Gaza poses a more difficult challenge, with it not clear that Hamas would agree to a ceasefire, although it is much weakened and might have difficulty resisting one if Israel agrees to terms that are widely deemed reasonable.
* What role could Donald Trump play in the region?
Trump could play a significant role, potentially building on the ceasefire in Lebanon and pressing for one in Gaza, launching a promising diplomatic process.