CAIRO
The Palestinian militant group Hamas will likely replace Yahya Sinwar with a new political leader based outside Gaza while his brother – Mohammad Sinwar – is expected to assume a bigger role directing the war against Israel in the territory, experts say.
In Its Leadership Deliberations, Hamas Must Consider
In its leadership deliberations, Hamas must consider not only the preferences of its main backer – Iran – but also the interests of the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, where all the main candidates to take over as politburo chief currently reside.
Sinwar’s Death
Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack that ignited the devastating Gaza war, was killed by Israeli forces in a gunbattle on Wednesday — the second time in less than three months that Hamas has lost its top leader.
Hamas’s History of Leadership Changes
Hamas has a history of quickly and efficiently replacing its fallen leaders, with its top decision-making body, the Shura Council, tasked with naming a new head.
DIVIDING DUTIES
Ashraf Abouelhoul, an expert on Palestinian affairs, expected Sinwar’s responsibilities to be split between two roles – one overseeing military affairs and another running the political office, responsible for international contacts and shaping policies.
Future of Hamas Leadership
The Shura Council represents all Hamas members in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israeli prisons and the Palestinian diaspora, meaning the new leader should have the authority to enter ceasefire talks even if he is not in Gaza, where Hamas gunmen still hold dozens of Israelis hostage.
Besides Hayya, who is Hamas’ chief negotiator, the other main leadership contenders are Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh’s predecessor, and Mohammad Darwish, a little-known figure who chairs the Shura Council, according to analysts and a Hamas source.
Notifying Qatar and Other Regional Capitals
Hamas will need to notify Qatar, which has played a major role in rounds of so far fruitless ceasefire talks, and other regional capitals ahead of its decision, the source said.
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A Hamas source said Hayya was expected to encounter no problems exercising his role as “de facto Gaza leader“. The source noted that Hayya had maintained good relations with the military wing and had been close to both Sinwar and Haniyeh.
Akram Attallah, a Palestinian political analyst, said he expected the armed wing to respect Hayya’s authority – even from afar. He also expected Mohammad Sinwar to emerge as a more significant figure in the armed wing and in Hamas in general.
Future Ceasefire Talks
Hamas will need to stick by core demands in future ceasefire talks, chiefly that Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza and stop the war. But it could show more flexibility on some conditions, such as the details of any deal swapping Israeli hostages for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the death of Yahya Sinwar has left a power vacuum in Hamas, and the group must now consider various options for replacing him. The main candidates are Khalil Al-Hayya, Khaled Meshaal, and Mohammad Darwish, each with their own strengths and weaknesses.
FAQs
Q: What is the current situation in Gaza?
A: The situation in Gaza is dire, with thousands of Palestinians killed and injured, and millions forced to flee their homes.
Q: Who is Yahya Sinwar?
A: Yahya Sinwar was the leader of Hamas in Gaza and was killed by Israeli forces in a gunbattle on Wednesday.
Q: What is the role of Iran in the conflict?
A: Iran is a key backer of Hamas and has provided the group with financial and military support.
Q: What is the future of the conflict?
A: The future of the conflict is uncertain, with both sides dug in and no clear end in sight.