The Demographic Challenge: ASEAN’s Declining Birth and Fertility Rates
A Growing Concern
PHNOM PENH: A big concern lurking in the background of ASEAN’s economic prosperity, besides climate change, is declining birth and fertility rates that could disturb its growth prospects. As fewer babies are being born in Southeast Asia due to changing lifestyles and urbanisation, it could be a real crunch on economic productivity.
A Region in Transition
While it is a populous region with about 670 million people, Southeast Asian governments need to address the demographic shift to an ageing population and declining birth rates, say experts. According to the "ASEAN Key Figures 2023" report, ASEAN is the third-most populous region in the world, following India and China.
The Impact on Economic Growth
ASEAN Briefing’s Deputy Editor, Ayman Falak Medina, says climate change and declining birth rates are concerns for the region’s growth prospect. "Although climate change will pose a challenge for ASEAN, I believe a bigger challenge will be tackling the declining birth and fertility rates, as this will impact overall productivity and thus the ability of each country to fight climate change. Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia are all experiencing demographic shifts due to ageing populations," he told Bernama in an email interview.
The Double-Edged Sword of Demographic Change
Population decline can impact economic growth and social development, labour scarcity and shrinking youth population, say experts, while others argue that slowing population growth has its positives. Better quality of life, less financial stress and less demand for key natural resources like energy, land and water.
Aging Populations
By 2030, one in four Singaporeans will be 65 or older, while Thailand expects 25 per cent of its population to reach this age by 2040. Vietnam is on a similar trajectory, with nearly 30 per cent of its population projected to be 60 or older by 2050. "Malaysia’s ageing is more gradual, with 14.5 per cent of its population expected to be 65 or above by 2040. Indonesia, Brunei, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos are preparing for ageing populations," he said.
The Long-Term Consequences
According to the ASEAN report, the region is facing a demographic transition as the total fertility rate (TFR) dropped over the last decade. "A decrease in TFR, for a certain period, could foster economic growth because it leads to a reduction in the proportion of children and an increase in the proportion of the working-age population. In the long run, especially if fertility continues to decline, the number of the working-age population will decrease while the number of elderly people will increase, resulting in an ageing population. This may increase the economic burdens by, among other things, increasing health care and social security costs," said the report.
Addressing the Challenge
Government investments in social protection, implementations of pro-natal policies, care for senior citizens and healthcare will be crucial as the region will experience the tide of an ageing wave.
Conclusion
ASEAN’s declining birth and fertility rates pose a significant challenge to the region’s economic prosperity. Governments must address this demographic shift by implementing policies that support population growth and ageing populations. Failure to do so could lead to economic stagnation and social unrest.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the main concern for ASEAN’s economic prosperity?
A: Declining birth and fertility rates.
Q: What are the consequences of an ageing population?
A: Increased economic burdens, labour scarcity, and shrinking youth population.
Q: What are the benefits of slowing population growth?
A: Better quality of life, less financial stress, and less demand for key natural resources.
Q: How can governments address the demographic challenge?
A: Through government investments in social protection, implementations of pro-natal policies, care for senior citizens and healthcare.