Authoritarianism is Turkey’s Biggest Economic Risk
Twelve Years of Lawlessness and Creeping Authoritarianism
Twelve years ago, I published a commentary that asked: “Why is Turkey Rebelling?” Demonstrators had flooded the streets of Istanbul to protect Gezi Park from being turned into a shopping mall.
Today, they are back, not for trees or green spaces, but in response to the culmination of years of lawlessness and creeping authoritarianism. Then, as now, the protests reflect a deep, mounting frustration with the steady dismantling of Turkey’s democratic institutions.
Istanbul Mayor’s Arrest: A Symbol of Political Repression
Last week, Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu – who has twice defeated the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in local elections – was arrested on the day he was expected to announce his candidacy in the 2028 presidential race.
The charges against him, including bribery and abuse of office, have been denounced as politically motivated. İmamoğlu is widely seen as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s most credible challenger, and opposition leaders argue that his sudden arrest is no coincidence.
The Public’s Response: A Call for Democratic Reform
The public responded with outrage. Protests erupted across the country, from Istanbul and Ankara to İzmir, Konya, Diyarbakır, and beyond. For many of the millions who have joined the demonstrations, this is no longer about one man or one court decision.
It is about a political system that has lost its legitimacy. The question now echoing across Turkey is whether the country’s authoritarian slide has finally reached the point of no return.
Economic Consequences: A Warning to Investors and the Global Community
For those who remember the 2013 Gezi protests, the imagery is familiar: tear gas in the streets, chants in city squares, police surrounding courthouses and universities. This time, however, the economy is central to the unrest.
Twelve years of economic mismanagement have led to a growth rate lower than 4%, and inflation persistently above 20%. The lira has plummeted, and Turkey’s risk premium has spiked.
Investors are rightly concerned about the country’s prospects, and the global community should take heed. A country that is rapidly descending into authoritarianism is unlikely to attract foreign investment or maintain economic stability.
A Global Concern: The Erosion of Democratic Institutions
This is not just a Turkish problem, but a global concern. The parallels with President Donald Trump’s administration are hard to ignore. The US response to the erosion of democratic institutions in a NATO member state of 85 million people has been muted.
Worse, patterns familiar to those who have lived in Turkey during the last decade are emerging within the US. The Trump administration has repeatedly targeted knowledge institutions, especially universities.
A Call to Action: Preserving Democratic Norms and Institutions
Turkey is not yet a failed democracy, but it is dangerously close to becoming one. Whether it returns to the path of institutional reform or continues its descent into authoritarianism will depend on the choices made in the days ahead.
The international community – particularly the US – should pay close attention, not only because of Turkey’s geopolitical importance, but also because the struggle unfolding in its streets between students and security forces mirrors a global battle between democracy and its enemies.
Conclusion
Authoritarianism is not only a threat to Turkey’s democratic institutions but also to its economic stability. The erosion of democratic norms and institutions has significant consequences for the economy, and the global community should take heed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the current state of Turkey’s economy?
A: Turkey’s economy is facing significant challenges, including high inflation, low growth, and a depreciating currency.
Q: What is the cause of Turkey’s economic woes?
A: The erosion of democratic institutions, political repression, and economic mismanagement are all contributing factors to Turkey’s economic instability.
Q: What is the impact of authoritarianism on the economy?
A: Authoritarianism can lead to a lack of transparency, corruption, and a concentration of power, ultimately resulting in economic instability and stagnation.
Q: What can be done to address Turkey’s economic challenges?
A: A return to democratic norms and institutions, institutional reform, and a focus on economic stability and growth are all necessary steps to address Turkey’s economic challenges.
Q: What is the role of the international community in addressing Turkey’s economic challenges?
A: The international community, particularly the US, should pay close attention to Turkey’s economic challenges and provide support and guidance to help the country return to a path of economic stability and growth.