Diplomacy is the Newest Front in the Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine Agrees to 30-Day Ceasefire

The war between Russia and Ukraine continues unabated. Neither side is in a position to achieve its stated objectives through military force. But now there is significant diplomatic activity as well. Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, in large part to patch up relations with US president Donald Trump’s administration, which unraveled during a Feb 28 Oval Office confrontation between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Russia Rejects Ceasefire Proposal

Russia rejected the ceasefire proposal, instead suggesting (but not implementing) a prohibition on attacking energy infrastructure. Both sides also indicated a readiness to accept a ceasefire in the Black Sea, but with Russia linking its support to a relaxation of sanctions, it is far from clear when – or even if – such a limited ceasefire would start, much less what it would encompass.

Partial Steps May Not Lead to Comprehensive Peace Agreement

Such partial steps, if implemented, could be a way station to something more significant. But it is at least equally possible that partial steps would not lead to a comprehensive peace agreement. Russia could prosecute the war even if the Black Sea were not an active theatre.

US Policy Remains Unclear

The biggest question remains US policy. The Trump administration has used a combination of pressure and incentives to persuade the two sides to stop fighting. But its approach has been skewed towards offering benefits to Russia while bringing heavy pressure to bear on Ukraine.

A Balanced Approach is Necessary

To be clear, it is appropriate to offer Russia certain incentives. This could include a willingness to resume high-level contacts and restaff embassies, support for limited relaxation of sanctions if specified conditions are met, and to allow Russia to keep its long-term objectives for Ukraine on the table. What is not acceptable is to embrace flawed Russian positions, such as its claims to Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and/or Zaporizhzhia based on the results of illegal referenda conducted by Russian occupation forces.

A Simple Ceasefire Agreement is Needed

To achieve a cessation of hostilities, the agreement ought to be as clean and simple as possible. Only two elements are essential for a viable ceasefire: a cessation of all hostilities, and a separation of forces, ideally with a peacekeeping contingent between them. Everything else, including the disposition of territory and populations, should be left for final-status negotiations.

US Support for Ukraine Remains Crucial

What is essential is for the US to continue providing military and intelligence support to Ukraine. Such support is the only way to convince Russian president Vladimir Putin that further stalling is not in his best interest, and is essential to Ukraine’s ability to deter renewed Russian aggression even if there is a ceasefire agreement.

Conclusion

The stakes are high, and not just for Ukraine. What plays out with Russia will have a significant effect on the future of Europe, on whether China uses force against Taiwan, or North Korea against South Korea, and on how the US is perceived both by its friends and enemies around the world.

FAQs

Q: What is the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war?
A: The war continues unabated, with neither side able to achieve its stated objectives through military force.

Q: What is the significance of the 30-day ceasefire agreement?
A: The agreement is a partial step towards something more significant, but it may not lead to a comprehensive peace agreement.

Q: What is the Trump administration’s approach to the conflict?
A: The administration’s approach has been skewed towards offering benefits to Russia while bringing heavy pressure to bear on Ukraine.

Q: What is the US role in the conflict?
A: The US is providing military and intelligence support to Ukraine, and its continued support is crucial to convincing Russia that further stalling is not in its best interest.

Q: What are the consequences of a US military cutoff of Ukraine?
A: A US military cutoff could bring about an escalation in the fighting, as Russia would likely view it as an opportunity to press or even escalate militarily.