Earthquakes in the Middle East
A Zone of Fault Lines
The Middle East resembles nothing so much as an earthquake zone with multiple fault lines. This week, fighting increased sharply along one of those lines, Israel’s border with Lebanon, and more specifically, between Israel and Hezbollah.
The Emergence of a New Front
What enabled the emergence of this new front is that the situation in Gaza had reached something of a new equilibrium. Over the past year, Israel has sharply degraded the military threat posed by Hamas. Between 10,000 and 20,000 of its fighters have been killed, with many of its leaders either assassinated or forced into indefinite hiding in Gaza’s labyrinth of tunnels. Israel determined that it could safely shift its focus to its northern border and Hezbollah.
A Weakened Hezbollah
What Israel has accomplished thus far against Hezbollah is impressive. First, by detonating explosives implanted in pagers and walkie-talkies, then by targeted aerial bombardment, Israel decimated Hezbollah’s senior leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s leader for over three decades, and killed a significant number of Hezbollah fighters.
Uncertainty Ahead
After Israel’s costly intelligence failures in the lead-up to October 7, the attacks against Hezbollah revived the Israeli security establishment’s prestige by demonstrating its continued ability to gain precise intelligence about enemy groups and exploit that intelligence in a decisive fashion. The belief that Israel and Hezbollah had reached a stalemate, with Israel sufficiently deterred from forceful action by Hezbollah’s ability to unleash a missile barrage against it, has been debunked.
A Complex Situation
The situation is complex, with multiple moving parts. While it is unclear what will come next, one thing is certain: the region will continue to experience seismic shifts. As Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, notes, “The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.”
Consequences and Uncertainty
The consequences of this unpredictability are far-reaching. For Iran, the current situation presents both a crisis and an opportunity. While it has reacted to the attacks by bringing its military forces to the borders, it may also be forced to reconsider its role in the region. As for Israel, the situation has revived concerns about its security and prompted calls for more assertive action. But the path forward is not clear, and the outcome is uncertain.
FAQs
Q: What are the fault lines in the Middle East?
A: The region is home to several fault lines, including the borders between Israel and its neighboring countries, including Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran.
Q: What is the current situation in Gaza?
A: The situation in Gaza has reached a new equilibrium, with Israel having sharply degraded the military threat posed by Hamas.
Q: What is the situation between Israel and Hezbollah?
A: The situation is complex, with Israel having launched targeted attacks against Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure, while Hezbollah has launched rocket strikes against Israel.
Q: What are the concerns about Iran?
A: Iran is a key player in the region, and its involvement in the situation is a major concern. The country has reacted to the attacks by bringing its military forces to the borders, and the situation has revived concerns about its role in the region.
Q: What is the potential outcome of this situation?
A: The outcome is uncertain, with multiple scenarios possible, including further escalation, regime change in Iran, or a new equilibrium in the region.