Europe Confronts the Ghosts of History
Putin’s Tactical Gambit
When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he knew that he was upending Europe’s security order. But this was more of a tactical gambit than a calculated strategy, and he could not have predicted what would follow.
A New Era of European Security
For now, Putin seems to hold all the cards. The transatlantic relationship is fracturing, as Trump’s isolationist administration criticizes its European allies and casts doubt on its commitment to NATO. Worse, Trump appears to be aligning the US with Russia in the Ukraine war.
Europe’s Response
But Europe still has a chance to turn things around. Already, it is abandoning its post-Cold War “end of history” mindset, according to which international law reigned supreme, European militaries were for keeping peace, not fighting wars, and the US could be counted on to safeguard Europe’s security.
Finland and Sweden’s NATO Membership
Finland and Sweden were perhaps the first to realize that “history is back,” and their accession to NATO – in 2023 and 2024, respectively – provided a major boost to the Alliance’s northern flank. Now the European Union also appears to be coming to terms with its new security situation, having just announced a US$840 billion rearmament plan.
Germany’s Shift
Even Germany, for which the return of history is particularly fraught, is preparing to rearm: incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his likely coalition partners have agreed to create a 500 billion euros (US$544 billion) infrastructure fund and loosen fiscal rules to allow for greater investment in defense.
The Significance of Germany’s Shift
The significance of this move should not be underestimated. Since the end of World War II, Germany has eschewed hard power in favor of the soft kind, serving as an engine of European integration and a bulwark of the rules-based world order.
Ostpolitik and the Pursuit of Constructive Engagement
Beginning in the 1960s, this included the pursuit of “constructive engagement” – a foreign-policy approach known as Ostpolitik – with the Soviet Union and then Russia. This explains former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s embrace of Russian energy supplies, despite the objections of other EU members and the US.
A New Era of German Leadership
But it is Merz who is set to oversee a true break from Germany’s postwar past – a change that will require the country to confront the most daunting, destructive ghosts of its history.
Germany’s Fiscal Revolution
For starters, there is the fiscal revolution. Germany’s frugality has been a source of considerable tension in the EU, particularly during the eurozone debt crisis of the early 2010s.
Confronting the Past
Merz’s planned overhaul of borrowing rules – including the modification and possible elimination of the debt brake – represents a radical change in Germany’s priorities.
German Leadership in Europe
More broadly, Merz appears prepared to embrace European leadership. Despite being the EU’s largest economy, situated in the continent’s “geostrategic centre,” Germany has long been reluctant to assume a genuine leadership role in Europe, particularly in the security domain.
Conclusion
Europe must step up quickly to improve Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Substituting lost US financial aid will not be as difficult as Trump would have us believe. Fulfilling the weapons gap would, however, be far more challenging and probably impossible in the short term.
FAQs
Q: What is the significance of Germany’s shift?
A: The significance of this move is that Germany is abandoning its post-Cold War “end of history” mindset and is preparing to rearm, serving as a major boost to the Alliance’s northern flank.
Q: What is Ostpolitik?
A: Ostpolitik is a foreign-policy approach that aims to promote constructive engagement with the Soviet Union and then Russia, as explained by former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s embrace of Russian energy supplies.
Q: How is Germany planning to rearm?
A: Germany’s rearmament plan includes creating a 500 billion euros (US$544 billion) infrastructure fund and loosening fiscal rules to allow for greater investment in defense.
Q: What is the significance of Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership?
A: Their accession to NATO provided a major boost to the Alliance’s northern flank.
Q: What is the role of Germany in Europe?
A: Germany is the EU’s largest economy, situated in the continent’s “geostrategic centre,” and has long been reluctant to assume a genuine leadership role in Europe, particularly in the security domain.
Q: What is the significance of Merz’s planned overhaul of borrowing rules?
A: This represents a radical change in Germany’s priorities, as it will require the country to confront the most daunting, destructive ghosts of its history.
Q: What is the role of Europe in Ukraine’s war effort?
A: Europe must step up quickly to improve Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and at the negotiating table, as substituting lost US financial aid will not be as difficult as Trump would have us believe.
Shlomo Ben-Ami, a former Israeli foreign minister, is vice-president of the Toledo International Center for Peace.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.