How World Order Changes
A New Era of Global Politics
After the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, and almost a year before the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991, US president George HW Bush proclaimed a “new world order”. Now, just two months into Donald Trump’s second presidency, Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, has declared that “the international order is undergoing changes of a magnitude not seen since 1945”. But what is “world order,” and how is it maintained or disrupted?
Defining World Order
In everyday language, order refers to a stable arrangement of items, functions, or relations. Thus, in domestic affairs, we speak of an “orderly society” and its government. But in international affairs, there is no overarching government. With arrangements among states always subject to change, the world is, in a sense, “anarchic”. Anarchy is not the same as chaos, though. Order is a matter of degree: it varies over time.
Measuring Changes in World Order
When it comes to world order, we can measure changes in the distribution of power and resources, as well as in adherence to the norms that establish legitimacy. We can also measure the frequency and intensity of violent conflict. A stable distribution of power among states often involves wars that clarify a perceived balance of power. But views about the legitimacy of war have evolved over time.
The Evolution of Norms and Power
For example, in eighteenth-century Europe, when Prussia’s King Frederick the Great wanted to take the province of Silesia from neighbouring Austria, he simply took it. But after World War II, states created the United Nations, which defined only wars of self-defense as legitimate (unless otherwise authorised by the Security Council). To be sure, when Russian president Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine and occupied its territory, he claimed that he was acting in self-defense against the eastward expansion of Nato.
Challenges to World Order
While states can lodge complaints against others in international courts, these tribunals have no capacity to enforce their decisions. Similarly, while the UN Security Council can authorise states to enforce collective security, it has rarely done so. The five permanent members (Britain, China, France, Russia, and the US) each wield a veto, and they have not wanted to risk a major war.
Technological and Transnational Forces
Moreover, a world order may become stronger or weaker because of technological changes that alter the distribution of military and economic power; domestic social and political changes that alter a major state’s foreign policy; or transnational forces like ideas or revolutionary movements, which can spread beyond governments’ control and alter public perceptions of the prevailing order’s legitimacy.
A Brief History of World Order
For example, after the 1648 Peace of Westphalia, which ended the European wars of religion, the principle of state sovereignty became enshrined in the normative world order. By the time of World War I, the US had become the world’s largest economy, allowing it to determine the outcome of the war by intervening militarily. Although US president Woodrow Wilson tried to change the normative order with his League of Nations, US domestic politics pushed the country towards isolationism, which allowed the Axis powers to attempt to impose their own order in the 1930s.
Conclusion
Will the Trump administration maintain this unique source of America’s continued power, or is Kallas right that we are at a turning point? The years 1945, 1991, and 2008 were also turning points. If future historians add 2025 to the list, it will be a result of US policy – a self-inflicted wound – rather than any inevitable secular development.
FAQs
Q: What is world order?
A: World order refers to a stable arrangement of international relations among states, maintained or disrupted by changes in the distribution of power and resources, adherence to norms, and the frequency and intensity of violent conflict.
Q: How is world order maintained or disrupted?
A: World order is maintained or disrupted by technological changes, domestic social and political changes, and transnational forces like ideas or revolutionary movements.
Q: What are the challenges to world order?
A: The challenges to world order include the lack of enforcement capacity in international courts and the Security Council, the veto power of the five permanent members, and the spread of transnational forces beyond governments’ control.
Q: What is the current state of world order?
A: The current state of world order is one of ongoing change and challenge, with the Trump administration’s policies and the rise of China and Russia contributing to a shift in the balance of power.