Japan’s Ruling Party May Lose Majority, Reliant on Komeito for Support
Election Looms With Uncertainty
TOKYO: Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), may lose its majority in the lower house, according to media polling ahead of the October 27 election. This would likely lead to the party relying on its coalition partner, the Komeito Party, to stay in power.
Coalition Seeking Majority
The LDP may not reach the 233 seats needed for an outright majority in the 465-seat chamber, according to the Nikkei newspaper. The party has held sole control of the lower house since 2012, when it returned to power after three years in opposition. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government already relies on Komeito for a majority in the upper house. If the LDP remains dependent on Komeito for support, it could give the party a greater say in policymaking.
Broader Implications
Professor Michael Cucek, specialising in politics at Temple University in Tokyo, comments: "The LDP will cover, along with its coalition ally Komeito, the majority that it needs." If this happens, Komeito will gain increased leverage, possibly pushing back on some of the LDP’s more hawkish security policies in the past.
Previous Policy Differences
Komeito has been less willing than the LDP to embrace policies such as giving Japan’s military longer-range missiles and removing restrictions on weapons exports. These restrictions have stopped Tokyo from sending arms to Ukraine or Southeast Asian nations that oppose Beijing’s territorial ambitions in the South China Sea.
Potential Alternative Partners
Nobuyuki Baba, head of the Japan Innovation Party, the third-largest group in the lower house, has not ruled out working with the LDP after the election. He supports expanding Japan’s military capabilities and has expressed support for an amendment to Japan’s pacifist constitution to officially recognise the armed forces.
Polling Suggests Challenges
The Nikkei said its nationwide poll, conducted with the Yomiuri newspaper, gathered responses from 165,820 people. Another poll by broadcaster TBS released on Wednesday suggested the LDP may lose about 30 seats, while Komeito may shed a small number. A separate poll by Kyodo published on Wednesday also pointed to challenges for the LDP to secure a majority.
Timeline
Ishiba dissolved the lower house of parliament on October 9, setting up the snap election. He became leader last month after his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, ended his three-year premiership due to public distrust resulting from a string of funding scandals involving LDP politicians.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the outcome of the election likely to be?
The LDP may lose its majority and rely on Komeito for support. - What is Komeito’s stance on security policies?
Komeito has been less willing than the LDP to support hawkish security policies, including the development of longer-range missiles and restrictions on weapons exports. - Who is the head of the Japan Innovation Party?
Nobuyuki Baba serves as the head of the Japan Innovation Party, which has not ruled out working with the LDP after the election.