German Firms Fear Trump Presidency, Survey Reveals
Almost half of German manufacturing firms fear the risks posed to their operations if Donald Trump wins the US election on November 5, according to a survey from the country’s ifo Institute (Institute for Economic Research) released on Wednesday, the German news agency (dpa) reported.
Fear of Negative Impacts
The survey revealed that 44 per cent of companies expressed concerns about negative impacts resulting from a second Trump presidency, while 5 per cent are hoping for positive effects. Fifty-one per cent expect no difference whether Trump or his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, wins.
Expert Insights
"Ifo expert Andreas Baur noted that many companies without direct export relationships to the US are also concerned about the ramifications, as they can still be indirectly affected given the intertwined nature of supply chains," the survey found.
Planning Adjustments
A small proportion of the roughly 2,000 companies surveyed are planning to make adjustments to their operations. Only 4 per cent are considering, for example, a greater shift of production to the US or changes to supply chains. Eighty-three per cent have no such plans and the rest are unsure.
Consequences of Tariffs
Trump, the Republican candidate, has promised to implement across-the-board tariffs of 10 per cent or 20 per cent on imports into the US. Such a scenario would create chaos for Germany’s manufacturing-heavy, export-driven economy. Baur said a study suggested that German exports to the US could decrease by 15 per cent.
US Market Importance
Around 40 per cent of the companies surveyed said the US market was important to their bottom lines.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the survey highlights the concerns held by many German manufacturing firms regarding the potential outcomes of a second Trump presidency. While 51 per cent of companies do not expect a change, the remaining 49 per cent are divided between those who fear negative impacts and those who expect positive effects.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What was the purpose of the survey?
A: The survey aimed to gauge the concerns of German manufacturing firms regarding the potential outcomes of a second Trump presidency.
Q: How many companies were surveyed?
A: Approximately 2,000 companies were surveyed.
Q: What was the breakdown of companies’ expectations?
A: 44 per cent expected negative impacts, 5 per cent expected positive effects, and 51 per cent expected no change.
Q: What were the concerns of companies without direct export relationships to the US?
A: Many companies without direct export relationships to the US were concerned about the ramifications, as they can still be indirectly affected given the intertwined nature of supply chains.