REPUBLICAN Donald Trump was on the verge of a convincing win over Democrat Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election, avenging his own loss to President Joe Biden four years ago.
How did Trump pull it off? He had the fortune of running when Americans were frustrated by high prices and, to a lesser extent, illegal immigration across the U.S. southern border.
Those were Trump’s signature issues, ones that proved to be anvils that weighed down Vice President Harris’ candidacy. The result was a quicker-than-expected set of returns that placed Trump on the cusp of securing the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.
Here are some takeaways from the exit polls and results:
TOUGH SLEDDING
The national exit poll of voters conducted by Edison Research underscored what public opinion surveys had long shown: Voters are in a bad mood and have been for some time.
- Three-fourths of voters surveyed by Edison said the country was going in a negative direction. Of those voters, 61% went for Trump. Of the voters who called themselves “angry,“ 71% backed the Republican.
- Voters who said the economy was their top concern broke 79% to 20% for Trump, according the poll.
- Voters who believe abortion should be a legal procedure in most instances surprisingly only backed Harris 51% to 47%, suggesting Trump’s efforts to blur his position may have partially negated one of her largest advantages.
TREND LINES
As the evening progressed, Harris and Trump each prevailed in the early states they had been expected to win. Trump’s lead in electoral votes continued to build.
- Edison Research projected Trump would win the battleground states of Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, while Fox News projected Trump to be the winner of the election. Other news organizations had not yet called the election.
- As Trump drew near to an official victory, there were some emerging trends that helped illustrate how he did it.
VOTERS OF COLOR
The Trump campaign put a great deal of effort into persuading Black and Latino voters to defect from the Democratic Party – and there were some indications those efforts paid off.
- In North Carolina, exit polls showed Trump boosting his share of the Black vote to 12%, from 5% in 2020. He garnered the support of 20% of Black male voters, the poll said.
- According to the Edison national poll, Trump’s support among Latino male voters jumped 18 percentage points from four years ago.
A GENDER GAP?
Harris’ campaign was looking to exploit a large gender gap in the electorate, with the hope that legions of women voters would flock to the vice president because of issues such as abortion rights.
- But Trump seemed to hold onto the support of at least white women voters, according to exit polls. Black women overwhelmingly supported Harris.
- In Pennsylvania, Trump was maintaining close to the same level of support among white women voters that he enjoyed in 2020. That was also true in Georgia.
AN AGE GAP
The national exit poll showed Trump slightly edging Harris among men between the ages of 18 and 44 and beating her solidly with men 45 and up.
- In Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump was up 5 percentage points with overall voters under 45 compared with four years ago. In Nevada, he jumped 6 points with those voters.
- Trump won new voters, a relatively small share of the electorate, by 9 percentage points over Harris.
Conclusion:
The 2024 U.S. presidential election was a closely contested race, with Republican Donald Trump appearing to pull off a convincing win over Democrat Kamala Harris. Trump’s success can be attributed to a combination of factors, including his ability to tap into voter frustration with high prices and illegal immigration, as well as his efforts to appeal to voters of color and white women.
Frequently Asked Questions:
- How did Trump’s campaign perform among different demographics?
- Trump showed greater strength with male voters of color and voters under 45 compared to four years ago.
- He also held onto the support of at least white women voters, according to exit polls.
- What were the key issues in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
- High prices and illegal immigration were major concerns for many voters, with Trump’s campaign capitalizing on these issues to win over supporters.
- How did the two candidates perform among different age groups?
- Trump slightly edged Harris among men between the ages of 18 and 44 and beat her solidly with men 45 and up.