The Case Against European Rearmament
Avoiding the Mistakes of the Past
Inducting Ukraine into NATO after forcing Russia back behind its pre-2014 borders has been the only strategic aim EU leaders have allowed themselves to contemplate since Russia’s invasion three years ago. Alas, well before US President Donald Trump’s re-election, this aim slipped into the realm of infeasibility. The writing had been on the wall for a while.
The Current Reality
First, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war economy proved a godsend to his regime. Second, even Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, was terminally unwilling to push for Ukraine’s NATO membership, leading the country down the garden path with vague promises. And, third, there was strong bipartisan opposition in the US to the idea of NATO troops fighting alongside Ukrainians.
The Consequences
So, in a display of breathtaking hypocrisy, the many “Putin is the new Hitler” speeches never resulted in a commitment to fight alongside the Ukrainians until Putin’s army was defeated on the ground. Instead, a cowardly West kept sending weapons to the exhausted Ukrainians so that they could defeat the “new Hitler” on their own.
Europe’s Institutional Weaknesses
The EU has always dreaded the beginning of any Ukraine peace process precisely because it would expose the bloc’s nakedness. Who would represent Europe at the negotiating table, even if Trump invited us to join? Even if the European Commission and Council could wave a magic wand to conjure a large, well-armed EU army into existence, who would have the democratic authority to send it into battle to kill and be killed?
A New Approach
To keep Europeans safe in the face of the twin challenges posed by Trump and Putin, the EU must embark on its own multipronged Peace Now process. First, the EU must reject outright Trump’s predatory effort to grab Ukraine’s natural resources. Then, after floating the prospect of relaxing sanctions and returning $300 billion in frozen assets (which cannot simultaneously be used as a bargaining chip and for Ukraine’s reconstruction), the EU should commence negotiations with the Kremlin, offering the prospect of a comprehensive strategic arrangement within which Ukraine becomes what Austria was during the Cold War: sovereign, armed, neutral, and as integrated with Western Europe as its citizens desire.
Key Aspects of the Plan
* Rejection of Trump’s effort to grab Ukraine’s natural resources
* Relaxation of sanctions and return of frozen assets
* Negotiations with the Kremlin for a comprehensive strategic arrangement
* Prospect of a demilitarized zone at least 500km deep on each side
* Right of return of all displaced people
* Good Friday-style agreement for the governance of disputed areas
* Green New Deal for the war-torn areas, jointly financed by the EU and Russia
* Negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations
The Future of Europe
If we truly want to strengthen Europe, the first step is not to rearm. It is to forge the democratic union without which stagnation will continue to erode Europe’s capacities, rendering it unable to rebuild what is left of Ukraine once Putin is finished with it.
Conclusions
Yanis Varoufakis, a former finance minister of Greece, is leader of the MeRA25 party and professor of economics at the University of Athens. The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why is rearmament not the solution to Europe’s security concerns?
A: Europe lacks the institutions to enact military Keynesianism, and shifting funds from social and physical infrastructure will only weaken the continent further.
Q: How can Europe respond to Trump’s Ukraine policy?
A: By rejecting his predatory efforts, negotiating with the Kremlin, and proposing a comprehensive strategic arrangement for Ukraine’s sovereignty, neutrality, and integration with Western Europe.
Q: What is the key to a successful Peace Now process?
A: A multipronged approach that includes rejecting Trump’s efforts, relaxing sanctions, and negotiating with the Kremlin, while also proposing a demilitarized zone, right of return, and a Green New Deal for war-torn areas.