The Causes and Consequences of Trump’s Comeback

A Failure to Connect with the Electorate

During the just-concluded US election campaign, I did not follow opinion polls, pore over “evidence-based” predictions, or read “expert” analyses of the race. As soon as I saw some of the most famous faces in American pop culture – from Taylor Swift and Beyoncé to Oprah Winfrey and Bruce Springsteen – campaigning for vice-president Kamala Harris, I knew she was going to lose.

A Lack of Empathy and Understanding

This might seem counter-intuitive: these celebrities have millions of fans, so it stands to reason that they can influence millions of voters. But in an election framed by one side as a battle pitting “the people” against “the elites,” associating oneself with ultra-wealthy celebrities – people who live in gated mansions, fly in private jets, and walk down public streets flanked by security guards – is a losing strategy.

The Strength and Durability of Trump’s Appeal

The last thing the people want, as they struggle with high prices and fear for their futures, is for elites to tell them how to vote. Many of the 73 million Americans who voted for Trump in this election were motivated by legitimate grievances over issues like economic insecurity and immigration.

A Failure to Understand the Opponent’s Strengths

One can criticise their apparent willingness to accept Trump’s misogynistic and otherwise offensive rhetoric, his habit of abandoning allies and trampling on democratic norms, and his obvious authoritarian ambitions. But whether or not Democratic leaders like these voters’ priorities, they probably should not disparage large swaths of the electorate, say, by calling them “deplorables,” as Hillary Clinton did during the 2016 campaign, or implying that they are “garbage,” as Joe Biden did last month.

The Global Implications of Trump’s Comeback

The Democrats’ failure to mount an effective challenge to Trump will have far-reaching consequences. For starters, Trump’s victory will have a galvanising effect on similar authoritarian projects globally.

A Threat to Democracy and International Stability

The world is locked in an ideological battle between autocratic regimes – think China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia – and democracies. If the democratic camp is to prevail, US leadership is essential. Under Trump, such leadership is uncertain.

A Potential Disaster for Europe and the Middle East

For example, Trump seems prepared to abandon Ukraine. There is reason to think that he might start by freezing the front lines. But, while this could open the way for peace negotiations with Russia, it also summons the specter of the Munich Agreement, under which Britain and France sacrificed part of Czechoslovakia to Adolf Hitler in 1938.

Conclusion

Trump’s comeback is a sobering reminder of the need for Democrats to reconnect with the electorate and to understand the strengths and weaknesses of their opponents. It also underscores the importance of effective US leadership in the face of global challenges. As Shlomo Ben-Ami, a former Israeli foreign minister, noted, the world is locked in an ideological battle between autocratic regimes and democracies, and the US plays a crucial role in this battle.

FAQs

Q: What were the causes of Trump’s comeback?

A: Trump’s comeback was likely due to a combination of factors, including his ability to connect with working-class voters, his divisive rhetoric, and the failure of the Democratic Party to mount an effective challenge.

Q: What are the consequences of Trump’s comeback?

A: Trump’s comeback has far-reaching consequences, including the potential for a galvanising effect on similar authoritarian projects globally, a threat to democracy and international stability, and a potential disaster for Europe and the Middle East.

Q: What can the Democratic Party do to learn from Trump’s comeback?

A: The Democratic Party can learn from Trump’s comeback by reconnecting with the electorate, understanding the strengths and weaknesses of their opponents, and developing effective strategies for challenging authoritarianism.