The New Gang of Four

A Shared Antipathy towards the US-Led World Order

The Gang of Four was once a term used to describe four senior Chinese officials associated with the Cultural Revolution’s most radical features. However, a new Gang of Four has emerged: China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. This grouping is not a formal alliance committed to defending one another, but an alignment driven by shared antipathy towards the existing US-led world order and features mutual exchanges of military, economic, and political support.

Mutual Support and Shared Goals

The gang’s mutual support takes several forms. On the eve of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, China signed an agreement with Russia declaring that their mutual friendship had “no limits,” while Russia expressed support for China’s position vis-à-vis Taiwan. Since then, China has echoed Russian talking points about the war in Ukraine, blaming NATO for it, and amplifying Russian misinformation.

In the economic realm, China has opposed war-related sanctions against Russia, is the world’s largest importer of Iranian oil, and has long subsidized North Korea. Militarily, Iran has provided missiles and drones to Russia, North Korea has provided artillery shells, and China seems to have provided dual-use technologies and industrial inputs with military applications that the US and its allies have tried to keep out of Russia’s hands.

No Simple Policy to Counter this Alignment

Unfortunately, no single or simple policy will suffice to counter this alignment. There is no diplomatic opportunity to exploit divisions between them, in contrast to the early 1970s, when the US leveraged Sino-Soviet tensions to draw China towards the West. China is fundamentally different from the other three, integrated into the global economy and a major trading partner for many countries in the Western security orbit.

Countering the Gang of Four

To confront this challenge, the US, in coordination with South Korea, could explore relaxing sanctions in exchange for steps by North Korea to limit the scale of its nuclear and missile programs. Close ties between the US and South Korea should work to discourage North Korean aggression. Russia must not prevail over Ukraine, requiring maintaining long-term military support for Ukraine while extending security assurances and European Union membership.

In the case of Iran, the long-term priority must be to ensure – through diplomacy, threats, or use of military force – that it does not develop nuclear weapons. China presents the most complicated challenge of the four, owing to its strategic ambitions, willingness to use its economic heft and military might to achieve its objectives. Dialogue, deterrence, and, at times, reassurance will be required to influence Chinese behavior and leverage its interest in maintaining access to technology and markets.

Conclusion

The US and its partners need to assume this new alignment will persist and potentially deepen. That should not preclude diplomatic contacts, which are a tool, not a favor. Diplomacy reinforces the message that the US goal is policy change, not regime change, if only because regime change is beyond reach and could encourage even less restraint among the Gang of Four.

FAQs

Q: What is the new Gang of Four?
A: China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia are the new Gang of Four, an alignment driven by shared antipathy towards the existing US-led world order and features mutual exchanges of military, economic, and political support.

Q: What is the goal of the Gang of Four?
A: The Gang of Four seeks to prevent the spread of Western liberalism domestically and opposes US leadership abroad, including the norms the US and its partners embrace.

Q: How can the US counter the Gang of Four?
A: The US can counter the Gang of Four by exploring relaxing sanctions in exchange for steps by North Korea to limit its nuclear and missile programs, maintaining long-term military support for Ukraine, and ensuring Iran does not develop nuclear weapons.

Q: How can the US influence Chinese behavior?
A: The US can influence Chinese behavior through dialogue, deterrence, and reassurance, leveraging its interest in maintaining access to technology and markets.

Q: What is the importance of the West’s economic and military strength?
A: The West’s economic and military strength is crucial in countering the Gang of Four, as it enables the US and its partners to maintain a presence and predictability in the face of the Gang’s aggressive behavior.