The Way Forward in Syria
A New Era of Diplomacy
The collapse of Syria’s Assad regime has left regional and international players scrambling to stabilise the country. Despite numerous attempts to restore stability, the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254 remains the cornerstone of international diplomatic efforts to resolve the Syrian conflict. This resolution provides a clear roadmap for a Syrian-led political transition under a new constitution, with UN-supervised elections and measures to ensure inclusive governance.
The Constitutional Committee: A Roadblock to Progress
The Constitutional Committee, comprising representatives of the Assad regime, the opposition, and civil society, was supposed to draft a new constitution. However, the committee has achieved little of substance due to obstruction by the regime’s delegation. The regime faced no consequences for derailing the process, as the UN Security Council was deeply divided, with Russia shielding Assad from more forceful international action.
A New Opportunity for Progress
Now, with the regime’s collapse, everything is different. Many governments are in contact with the lead rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and its interim government. The US, the UK, and others still officially designate HTS as a terrorist organisation, but this has not been an issue. The 2015 UN roadmap remains the best option for ensuring inclusive governance, which is a precondition for stability in Syria.
Challenges Ahead
Israel has advanced its forces beyond the Golan Heights, and Turkey’s biggest question is whether it can accept a Syrian governance framework that includes the Kurds. The Turkish government’s priority is to marginalise any elements associated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which it regards as a terrorist group. One obvious risk is that remnants of the Islamic State (Isis) will exploit the new uncertainty to strengthen their own position.
A Key Strength of the UN Process
The absence of favourable alternatives makes the UN process the best option. Were it to collapse, the outcome would be catastrophic for all concerned. The victorious rebels’ focus on building and maintaining state institutions shows that they are well aware of the dangers.
Conclusion
The process that lies ahead will be long and complicated, but the UN process represents the best way forward. Giving the organisation a chance to show the world that it remains indispensable for situations such as these. The stakes are especially high for Europe, whose politics are still haunted by the 2015 refugee crisis. Repeating that episode would be a nightmare.
FAQs
Q: What is the best option for ensuring inclusive governance in Syria?
A: The 2015 UN roadmap remains the best option, providing a clear roadmap for a Syrian-led political transition under a new constitution, with UN-supervised elections and measures to ensure inclusive governance.
Q: What is the biggest challenge facing Turkey in the Syrian governance framework?
A: Turkey’s biggest question is whether it can accept a Syrian governance framework that includes the Kurds, as its priority is to marginalise any elements associated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Q: What is the risk of the new uncertainty in Syria?
A: One obvious risk is that remnants of the Islamic State (Isis) will exploit the new uncertainty to strengthen their own position.
Q: What is the key strength of the UN process?
A: The absence of favourable alternatives makes the UN process the best option, giving the organisation a chance to show the world that it remains indispensable for situations such as these.