Barisan Nasional Faces Major Challenge in Capturing Second Tier Seats in GE16

Winning Over Young Voters Key to Success

PETALING JAYA: Winning over young fence sitters, particularly those aged 18 to 20, will pose a major challenge for Barisan Nasional (BN) in its bid to capture second tier (tier II) seats in the next general election (GE16), says an analyst.

BN Struggled to Gain Youth Vote in GE15

BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said on Sunday that he was confident the coalition could regain tier II parliamentary seats in GE16, referring to seats it lost in the 15th general election (GE15). However, Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said BN had struggled to gain the youth vote at GE15, where it won just 30 seats in its worst electoral defeat ever.

Hisommudin Bakar’s Analysis

Although it may seem straightforward on paper (to capture second tier seats), the situation at the upcoming general election will be very different from the last one, said Hisommudin. He said at least 17 parliamentary seats are categorised as tier II: seven in Perak (Gerik, Bukit Gantang, Padang Rengas, Kuala Kangsar, Parit, Pasir Salak, and Lumut), five in Pahang (Jerantut, Maran, Kuala Krau, Temerloh, and Rompin), two in Selangor (Sabak Bernam and Tanjong Karang), two in Melaka (Masjid Tanah and Jasin) and one in Johor (Mersing). These seats were won by PN in GE15.

Challenges Ahead

Hisommudin said BN would find it more challenging to capture seats in opposition-held states like Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, and Perlis. In those states, adding the number of votes which BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH) won in GE15 still wouldn’t be enough to beat PN, he said.

Cooperation between BN and PH Leaders

Hisommudin also said that cooperation between BN and PH leaders in the unity government over the past 25 months would ease seat negotiations ahead of GE16. He said he did not expect any significant complications in this regard as PH was more focused on mixed seats with non-Malay majorities.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Barisan Nasional faces a major challenge in capturing second tier seats in GE16, particularly in winning over young voters. The coalition’s struggles to gain the youth vote in GE15 and its lack of success in opposition-held states will make it difficult to regain tier II parliamentary seats. However, cooperation between BN and PH leaders may ease seat negotiations and provide a glimmer of hope for the coalition.

FAQs

Q: How many parliamentary seats are categorised as tier II?
A: At least 17 parliamentary seats are categorised as tier II.

Q: Which states will BN find it more challenging to capture seats in?
A: Opposition-held states like Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, and Perlis.

Q: Will cooperation between BN and PH leaders ease seat negotiations ahead of GE16?
A: Yes, Hisommudin expects cooperation between BN and PH leaders to ease seat negotiations.