Trump the Capitulator: Can He Deliver Peace Between Russia and Ukraine?

A Challenging Task Ahead

Will US President Donald Trump be able to forge peace between Russia and Ukraine, or are we facing a repetition of the infamous Munich Agreement? When Britain and France forced Czechoslovakia to cede the Sudetenland to Nazi Germany in 1938, they believed that doing so would ensure long-term peace. But appeasing a revisionist aggressor had the opposite effect, setting the stage for another world war one year later.

The Origin of the War

The origin of the war lies in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s determination to prevent Ukraine from becoming “anti-Russia,” namely by forcing it back under Kremlin control.

A True Peace is Elusive

A democratic, sovereign Ukraine that sought cooperation and integration with the West was incompatible with what Putin regards as his historic duty. He has long maintained that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a catastrophe, and that Ukraine is not, in fact, an independent nation-state.

A Halt to the Fighting and a Political Process

This means that a true peace between Russia and Ukraine will not be possible until Putin has left the Kremlin, and a more realistic vision of Russia’s future has gained ascendancy there. Nothing of the kind appears imminent. But if peace is not possible in the near term, a halt to the fighting and the beginning of a political process to reduce tensions might still be achievable.

Trump’s Promise

Trump’s promise to end the war in 24 hours obviously was never serious. He is now facing a challenge that will take months, not hours. Putin previously made clear that he will not accept a ceasefire that does not result in Russia’s territorial expansion and Ukraine’s political and military submission.

The Challenge Ahead

He will now try to extract as much as possible from a direct meeting with Trump, and judging by past meetings between the two men, his maximalist approach could pay off. Recall Trump’s private meeting with Putin in Helsinki in 2018, when he declared that he believed the Russian leader over his own intelligence agencies.

Can Trump Deliver?

In September 1938, Czechoslovakia did not have a choice about what happened to it. It wasn’t even at the table for the discussions in Munich, where Adolf Hitler persuaded French and British leaders to accept its dismemberment.

The Risk of Appeasement

Within six months, Hitler violated the agreement, and German tanks were rolling into Prague. Trump and Putin are equally adamant that Ukraine should not be at the table. Their intention seems to be to draft an agreement, and then force Ukraine to accept its terms.

Ambitious Demands

Putin will likely be very ambitious with his demands, because he knows that this is his big chance. In his own opening bid, Trump will probably seek a straightforward ceasefire, with political talks later. But Putin will want more.

A Risk of Overplaying His Hand

He will not only press his original demands but also ask for relief from Western sanctions. The risk, of course, is that he will overplay his hand, demanding more than even Trump believes he can deliver.

Critical Days Lie Ahead

Critical days lie ahead. A new and powerful source of global instability – the US government – must now be reckoned with.

Conclusion

Trump’s promise to end the war in 24 hours was never serious, and now he faces a challenge that will take months, not hours. The risk of appeasement is high, and the stakes are existential not only for Ukraine but also for the rest of Europe and the world.

FAQs

Q: Can Trump deliver peace between Russia and Ukraine?

A: The likelihood is slim, as Putin’s demands are unlikely to be met, and Ukraine is unlikely to accept a diktat.

Q: What are the risks of appeasement?

A: The risks of appeasement are high, as it could lead to further aggression and instability, and undermine the credibility of Western leaders.

Q: What are the stakes for the rest of Europe and the world?

A: The stakes are high, as a failure to stand up to Russian aggression could have far-reaching consequences, including the erosion of international norms and the rise of revisionist powers.

Q: What is the view of Carl Bildt, the former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden?

A: Carl Bildt is a former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden. The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.