Trumpian Turmoil is Coming to the Middle East
A Region on Edge as Trump Returns to the White House
Donald Trump’s victory in last week’s US presidential election has left many world leaders feeling dejected. European leaders fear that he will browbeat them on issues ranging from trade to defense spending, while those in Latin America are terrified that he will punish them for immigration flows. In the Middle East, however, the reaction has been more mixed. Some leaders are crestfallen, others elated. But those who are cheering now may be pining for a less capricious leader once Trump takes office.
Authoritarian Rulers to Gain
Authoritarian rulers such as Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stand to gain the most from a second Trump term. Trump has praised both men, referring to el-Sisi as his “favourite dictator” and calling himself a “big fan” of Erdoğan, and will thus likely refrain from pressing them on human rights and democratic values, as prior US administrations have done.
The Persian Gulf Sheikhdoms to Benefit
The Persian Gulf sheikhdoms will also benefit from a Trump presidency. Unlike el-Sisi and Erdoğan, the leaders of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates seek a muscular US foreign policy to weaken Iranian influence. Trump’s revival of his hawkish rhetoric and “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran would please Bahrain’s Sunni monarchy, in particular, because it would likely distract the mullahs from stirring up the tiny island’s Shia majority.
Other US Allies to Suffer
Other US allies in the region will suffer. Republicans will pummel Qatar for its support of Hamas and other Islamist groups. And American envoys will cease shuttling between Jerusalem and Beirut to end the bombing of Lebanon.
The Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) to Lose
The biggest loser of a Trump presidency may end up being the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD). The group is the Syrian branch of the Turkish Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which has been fighting an intermittent insurgency against Turkey’s government since 1984, and most recently killed five people at an aerospace company in Ankara. Trump’s aversion to American troop deployments, coupled with his affection for Erdoğan, could lead him to recall the roughly 900 soldiers stationed in Syria. Ostensibly there to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State, they also protect the PYD from Syria and Turkey.
America’s Adversaries to Fear
America’s adversaries – Iran and its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah – should be most concerned about Trump’s return to the White House. Trump will likely give Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu carte blanche, lifting the few restraints US president Joe Biden has imposed in a failing effort to prevent a wider war.
Conclusion
The return of Trump will upend US foreign policy, not least in the Middle East. A region that has endured wars, revolutions, and jihadist insurgencies can survive a bully in the White House. But whether America’s allies and adversaries gain and lose in equal measure remains to be seen.
FAQs
Q: What are the implications of Trump’s return to the White House for the Middle East?
A: Trump’s presidency will likely lead to a more hawkish and transactional approach to foreign policy, benefiting authoritarian rulers and the Persian Gulf sheikhdoms, while harming other US allies and the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party.
Q: How will Trump’s relationship with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu affect the region?
A: Trump will likely give Netanyahu carte blanche, lifting restraints on Israeli actions and potentially leading to a wider war in the region.
Q: What are the implications for Iran and its proxies?
A: Trump’s return to the White House will likely lead to a more aggressive approach towards Iran, potentially including military action, and will likely benefit Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.