Trump’s Middle East Challenge
A New Landscape
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was no surprise to people in the Middle East. Governments in the region had planned for it, and more than a month before Trump’s inauguration, they are ready to deal with him. It is Trump who might find himself unprepared, because today’s Middle East is fundamentally different from the one he confronted during his first term in the White House.
A Changed Iran
The two biggest changes are Iran and Gaza. During Trump’s first term, he ripped up the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to limit Iran’s nuclear programme. While Iran’s president at the time, the moderate Hassan Rouhani, was succeeded in 2021 by an ultra-conservative, the late Ebrahim Raisi, the presidency is now once again held by a relative moderate, Masoud Pezeshkian.
A New Era of Diplomacy
Even before Pezeshkian took office, Iran was engaged in rapprochement with its Arab neighbours, restoring diplomatic relations with its great regional rival, Saudi Arabia, in March 2023. This unexpected and highly consequential détente was part of an ongoing Chinese-sponsored initiative, apparently aimed at reducing tensions and bolstering stability in the region.
A New Balance of Power
This brings us to another shift since Trump was last in office: both China and Russia have strengthened their relations with Iran (and with each other). While Trump was always antagonistic towards China and Iran, he maintained a kind of “bromance” with Russian president Vladimir Putin during his first term. But while he seems eager to coordinate a de-escalation of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East directly with Putin, he will have to navigate a new set of relationship dynamics.
The Gaza Crisis
In any case, a de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East will be difficult to achieve. Israel’s brutal campaign against Gaza began as retaliation for the Hamas attack of Oct 7, 2023, but has now caused an appalling level of civilian deaths, displacement, and suffering.
A Tough Task Ahead
To be sure, with the US and France having brokered a ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah appears likely to be over before Trump’s inauguration. But it is difficult to predict whether a “peace” agreement in Lebanon will make reaching a similar deal in Gaza easier or more difficult, not least because Trump lacks any clear stance on virtually any topic.
A Pro-Israel Administration
US president Joe Biden was easier to figure out. He and his secretary of state, Antony Blinken, carry a certain amount of Zionist ideological baggage. So, while the Biden administration has urged Israel to stop its offensive, and threatened to withhold aid unless conditions for civilians in Gaza improved, it has unfailingly rationalised Israel’s actions and continued to supply it with weapons.
A New Set of Challenges
Trump has shown a similar preference for Israel’s interests. During his first administration, he broke from decades of settled policy to move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, recognised Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, and defunded the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, the main programme supporting Palestinian refugees. He also initiated the Arab-Israeli normalisation process, with Israel signing the so-called Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan in 2020-21.
A Push for a Deal
Trump plans to include plenty of pro-Israel figures in his new administration. But when it comes to the war in Gaza, his lack of any fixed ideological commitments means that his goal is simple: strike a deal. Whatever that deal turns out to be is almost certain to be bad for the Palestinians, not only because of the administration’s pro-Israel bent, but also because externally brokered deals tend to reflect the balance of power on the ground, which clearly favours Israel.
A Conclusion
The most likely scenario appears to be an end to the current war and a return to the pre-Oct 7 status quo, not any kind of push for a broader political solution. But Trump’s unpredictability and the pro-Israel character of his administration have many in the region concerned that he might greenlight Israeli annexation of part of the West Bank or even agree to establishing Jewish settlements in Gaza.
FAQs
* What are the two biggest changes in the Middle East since Trump’s last term in office?
Iran and Gaza
* Who is the current president of Iran?
Masoud Pezeshkian
* What is the current state of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia?
Restored in March 2023
* What is the current state of relations between China and Russia?
Strengthened
* What is the current state of the war in Gaza?
Ongoing, with Israel’s campaign against Hamas
* What is the likely scenario for the war in Gaza?
Return to the pre-Oct 7 status quo, with no push for a broader political solution