KYIV: Washington’s Suspension of Military Assistance

Washington’s suspension of military assistance will not lead to a sudden collapse of Ukraine’s defensive lines, but it could have a real impact on the war within months, undermining air defences and precision strike capabilities in particular.

U.S. Delivers of Military Aid Halted

U.S. deliveries of military aid via Ukraine’s western border halted at 3:30 a.m. (0130 GMT), a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, after U.S. President Donald Trump paused assistance late on Monday following an extraordinary clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week.

Impact on Ukraine’s Defences

The move suspends any further drawdown from $3.85 billion of military aid approved by Congress that Trump inherited from his predecessor, Joe Biden. It also appears to halt deliveries of military equipment already approved by Biden.

“It’s pretty significant, but not nearly as impactful as it would have been earlier in the war because Ukraine is far less dependent on direct U.S. military assistance now than it was previously,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment.

“But it will definitely affect Ukraine, and the effect will become more pronounced after a couple of months as inventories become depleted,” he told Reuters on Monday, shortly before the aid cut was announced.

Ukraine’s Reduced Dependence on U.S. Weaponry

Ukraine has steadily reduced its dependence on U.S. weaponry, and this pause in aid is not expected to have a significant impact on the front lines. Europe has significantly stepped up its supplies of shells, and other countries have contributed directly or indirectly.

Ukraine’s Shift to Drones

Ukraine also now uses domestically made drones for a majority of battlefield strikes, defence experts said.

“Artillery has not lost its place on the field of battle, but we see that the war has changed and it is now based on drones. Artillery needs to be there, it changes the enemy’s intentions, but the base is drones,” said Roman Kostenko, secretary of Ukraine’s parliamentary committee on national security, defence and intelligence.

Impact on Air Defences and Precision Strike Capabilities

The loss of sophisticated air defence systems used to repel regular Russian missile attacks, and precision weapons like the HIMARS missile system, which is one of Ukraine’s main strike systems, with a range of 70-85 km (45-55 miles), could be a problem for Ukraine’s air defences and precision strike capabilities.

Will the US Stop Others from Giving Kyiv its Arms or Intelligence?

Serhiy Rakhmanin, a lawmaker on the parliamentary committee, said much would now depend on whether the United States decides to block producers from third countries that hold U.S. production licences and are ready to continue supplying Kyiv with weapons and ammunition.

The United States is Ukraine’s single largest military donor, having delivered or allocated over 64 billion euros’ worth ($67 billion) since January 2022, data by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy shows.

Conclusion

While the suspension of U.S. military assistance is not expected to lead to a sudden collapse of Ukraine’s defensive lines, it could have a real impact on the war within months, undermining air defences and precision strike capabilities in particular. Ukraine’s reduced dependence on U.S. weaponry and shift to drones may mitigate the impact, but the loss of sophisticated air defence systems and precision weapons could be a problem. The outcome will depend on whether the United States decides to block producers from third countries that hold U.S. production licences and are ready to continue supplying Kyiv with weapons and ammunition.

FAQs

Q: What is the impact of the suspension of U.S. military assistance on Ukraine’s defensive lines?

A: The suspension of U.S. military assistance is not expected to lead to a sudden collapse of Ukraine’s defensive lines, but it could have a real impact on the war within months, undermining air defences and precision strike capabilities in particular.

Q: Why is Ukraine’s reduced dependence on U.S. weaponry not expected to have a significant impact on the front lines?

A: Ukraine has steadily reduced its dependence on U.S. weaponry, and Europe has significantly stepped up its supplies of shells, and other countries have contributed directly or indirectly.

Q: What is the significance of Ukraine’s shift to drones in its military strategy?

A: Ukraine’s shift to drones for a majority of battlefield strikes has changed the nature of the war, with drones becoming the base of Ukraine’s military strategy, and artillery playing a less prominent role.