What Would Victory in Ukraine Look Like?
Victory in war is sometimes easy to define. World War II ended with Allied troops in control of Berlin and Tokyo, and with the German and Japanese leadership removed. In contrast, the Vietnam War ended in a clear defeat for the US, as North Vietnam conquered South Vietnam despite the expenditure of 58,000 American lives. However, defining victory can be misleading, as in Iraq, where the US removed Saddam Hussein but neither found weapons of mass destruction nor turned the country into a functioning democracy.
Defining Victory in Ukraine
The 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine and its subsequent attempts to capture the capital, Kyiv, illustrate the complexities of defining victory. Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to make Ukraine part of the "larger Russian world," but Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky rallied his troops and saved the capital, deraling Putin’s plans. The result has been to strengthen Ukraine’s national identity and NATO, which has added two new members, Finland and Sweden.
Stalemate or Victory?
Currently, the war seems stalemated, with Russian troops controlling approximately one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory and Putin demanding that Ukraine recognize his annexation of four eastern provinces. However, Putin has turned the war into a war of attrition, believing that time is on his side due to Russia’s larger population and economy. Ukraine’s will to fight may erode, and Western support could dwindle.
Ukrainian and Russian Perspectives
According to a recent poll, 26% of Ukrainians are open to a diplomatic solution, but they are not willing to negotiate with an unrepentant Putin. 86% believe that Russia will attack again, even if a peace treaty is signed. For Russia, recognition of its annexation is a non-negotiable demand, but this is not acceptable to Ukraine.
Mediation Attempts
Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, attempted to mediate between the two sides, but failed to sway Putin. US President Donald Trump has claimed he could settle the war in a day, but this is unrealistic, as it would require a Ukrainian surrender. Czech President Petr Pavel, a former NATO general, suggests that a settlement will be reached, but part of Ukrainian territory will remain under Russian occupation, potentially for years.
A Possible Victory for Ukraine
If Ukraine aims to maintain its independence as a democracy linked to Europe, while reserving the right to reclaim its territory, victory is still possible. Ukraine needs support to strengthen its bargaining position. Even if Ukraine cannot achieve its maximalist goals in the short term, the legitimacy of its position will be preserved in the long term as long as Russian gains are not recognized.
This outcome is often referred to as a "Korean solution," where an armistice and demilitarized zone along the line of control would be monitored by international peacekeepers, preventing Russia from restarting hostilities.
Conclusion
Victory in Ukraine is a complex and nuanced concept, dependent on the war aims and time horizons of the participants. While Russia still controls a significant portion of Ukraine’s territory, Ukraine has already won in the sense that it has strengthened its national identity and NATO. A "Korean solution" can still provide a victory for Ukraine, as it would maintain its independence and preserve its right to reclaim its territory.
FAQs
- Is it possible for Ukraine to achieve a victory over Russia?
- Yes, if it maintains its independence as a democracy linked to Europe while reserving the right to reclaim its territory.
- Can a settlement be reached between Russia and Ukraine?
- Yes, but it would require compromise and concessions, such as recognition of Russia’s annexation, which is unacceptable to Ukraine.
- Will the war in Ukraine end soon?
- Not likely, as Russia has turned the war into a war of attrition, and Ukraine’s will to fight may erode, as will Western support.