Why China’s Marriage Crisis Matters
A Demographic Reality Check
New marriages in China reportedly plummeted by one-fifth last year, implying that the official number of births will likely fall from 9.54 million in 2024 to 7.3-7.8 million in 2025. Thus, while China represents 17.2% of the global population, it will account for less than 6% of births – comparable to Nigeria.
Moreover, China’s fertility rate in 2025 is expected to fall to 0.9 births per woman (2.1 is the standard replacement level), just half of what officials predicted in 2016. So alarming is this demographic reality that early this month Chinese premier Li Qiang announced that the government will be rolling out new policies to boost the birth rate.
The Consequences of a Declining Marriage Rate
Marriages already plummeted from 13.47 million couples in 2013 to 6.11 million in 2024 – albeit with some deviation in 2020-24, owing to the zero-Covid policy. Likewise, the overall marriage rate fell from 9.9 per 1,000 people to 4.3 over the same period, compared to 5.4 in Taiwan and 6.1 in the US (2023).
Why is China’s Marriage Crisis Happening?
Unfortunately for the Chinese leadership, there is no single cause. Salient factors include the steady decline in China’s childbearing-age population; changes in lifestyle; the lingering effects of the (now-discarded) one-child policy on attitudes towards marriage and childbearing; the persistent oversupply of men; and high youth unemployment.
Aging Population and Low Fertility Rate
According to China’s 2020 census, 61% of babies are born to women aged 20-30. But the number of women in this cohort dropped from 111 million in 2012 to 73 million in 2024, and is expected to decline further, to 37 million by 2050. Even if the fertility rate were to rise somewhat, births would continue to fall rapidly.
Sex Ratio and Bride Price
Decades of sex-selective abortion in China have led to a shortage of brides and a soaring “bride price” (the groom’s family must, at a minimum, purchase a new apartment). While the typical biological sex ratio at birth is between 102 and 106 males per 100 females, China’s 2000 census showed a sex ratio (in zero to four-year-olds) of 120 nationally, 133 in Jiangxi Province, and 197 in Wuxue City, Hubei Province.
Unmarried Women and the “Leftover” Phenomenon
Yet despite this profound asymmetry, there are still many “leftover women,” because many parents with a daughter (almost always an only child) have prioritised her education and economic independence over marriage, and placed excessive expectations on aspiring sons-in-law.
Infertility and Reproductive Window
The reproductive window for Chinese men and women is very short. A woman typically has 12% of her eggs left by age 30, and only 3% by 40. The risk of miscarriage increases from 10% for women under 30 to 20% at 35, 33-40% at 40, and 57-80% at 45. As the age of marriage is postponed, interest in raising children also declines.
Conclusion
China’s marriage crisis is a complex issue with far-reaching consequences for the country’s economy and demographics. The government’s efforts to boost the birth rate may be undermined by the decline in marriage rates and the aging population. To resolve this contradiction, the government must address the root causes of the crisis, including the lingering effects of the one-child policy and the persistent oversupply of men.
FAQs
Q: What is the expected number of births in China in 2025?
A: The expected number of births in China in 2025 is 7.3-7.8 million.
Q: What is the fertility rate in China expected to be in 2025?
A: The fertility rate in China is expected to be 0.9 births per woman in 2025.
Q: Why is China’s marriage crisis happening?
A: China’s marriage crisis is happening due to a combination of factors, including the steady decline in China’s childbearing-age population, changes in lifestyle, the lingering effects of the one-child policy, the persistent oversupply of men, and high youth unemployment.
Q: What is the “bride price” and why is it soaring in China?
A: The “bride price” is the minimum amount that a groom’s family must purchase for their son to marry, typically a new apartment. It is soaring in China due to the shortage of brides caused by decades of sex-selective abortion.